Brexit Day (or Cashing in the Chips?)

Today I woke up as a European citizen, tomorrow I will not. The gamblers have won and they got Brexit done. Or so it would seem. They want to give the impression that they are taking their chips and leaving the table, but they are not cashing in. They are moving to a higher stakes game. Johnson and Cummings managed to get the withdrawal agreement into law by capitulating to the Europeans in order to outmanoeuvre their domestic rivals. Their masterstroke was that they managed to sell this as a victory to the Conservative Party and the British people. It worked, but it can’t be done again.  

Majorities can be double-edged. Just ask David Cameron. His unexpected majority meant that he had to fulfil his promise for a referendum on EU membership, something he must have hoped a continued coalition with the Liberal Democrats would prevent. Johnson may find in the next few months that he would like to have fewer seats in parliament. He will no longer be able to shift blame onto the variety of ‘fifth columnists’ who have been targeted over the past few years. He has no more cover in domestic politics. In the event of failure, the only thing he will be able to do is blame the European Union. That has some resonance among Eurosceptics, but not with the non-ideological Britons who voted Tory to ‘Get Brexit Done’. They have been promised a swift resolution. They may not be terribly forgiving if it does not come about or if it is calamitous. 

The negotiations over the future relationship are not going to be easy. Trade deals take years to negotiate; Johnson has given himself an artificial deadline of eleven months. There are reasons to doubt whether he can get a good deal in this timeframe for four reasons:

1.     It is logistically difficult to do this in less than a year. Getting people in a room and going through the various points of discussion is time consuming. This isn’t getting them to agree, it’s just having the discussions. 

2.     The Europeans are stronger. That’s not me talking down the country, that’s a simple fact. Their economy is larger. We need them more than they need us. Johnson will be negotiating from a position of relative weakness.

3.     There does not seem to be a coherent strategy on the UK side. Some Tories want divergence from the EU to pursue a deregulated swashbuckling Britain. Others, especially the MPs representing former Labour-seats, want a deal that will allow business as usual for industries that are dependent on the European market. These wings will not be easily reconciled. Someone in the governing party is going to be very disappointed.  

4.     Johnson is a good salesman, but he is not a good negotiator. There is no wing of his party that he can roll in the way he rolled the DUP. If he lets down the free traders by aligning closely with Europe, then the ERG will be out for blood. If he lets down the ‘Red Wall’ MPs, then he may sacrifice all the gains made in the last election. Finding a deal that will keep everyone onside requires a deft hand. Johnson is not that dexterous. 

 We will get a real sense of how things are going on 30 June, which is the last chance for the UK to ask for an extension of the transition period. If it is going poorly there will be pressure for Johnson to ask for more time. This would enrage the hardcore Brexiters as this would prolong Britain’s status as a rule taker, but the alternative would be seriously risking a no deal Brexit that would threaten the economy and the Union. I hope Johnson sleeps well tonight because it may be his last chance for some time.