The Only Way is Down?
Today we are two weeks out from the general election and, against my predictions, it seems that Boris Johnson is on track for a strong majority. YouGov’s MRP analysis of every constituency has predicted an impressive Tory breakthrough. The Conservatives have good reason to be bullish at the two-week point. However, a fortnight is a long time in politics and there are plenty of things that could go wrong.
So far Johnson’s Teflon coating has not peeled away. The trail of comments about Muslims, single mothers, and various other groups has not yet damaged his party’s standing. This is in no small part thanks to keeping Johnson out of circumstances where he might be challenged by regular people or unfriendly journalists. Photo-ops of sheep-shearing and scones help to project a cuddly image that can be disassociated from the underlying nastiness of his journalism and inarticulateness on policy issues. It is successful so far, but the risk is that voters start questioning whether the PM has any backbone. At the time of writing, there are rumours that Johnson is doing his best to avoid being interviewed by Andrew Neil. His team must be worried that he will have a similar experience as Jeremy Corbyn. He is also not participating in additional debates, preferring to send stand-ins. He is even avoiding hustings in his own constituency. This may stop him from making a major gaffe, but the risk is that people may come to see him as a coward or arrogant. Yet, with Corbyn’s approval rating being so low, keeping Johnson gagged may be for the best.
The bigger worry for the CCHQ has to be that the YouGov MRP was conducted at the acqua alta for the Conservative vote and the next two weeks will see the tide go out. Dominic Cumming’s recent blog post has expressed concerns that a comparatively small shift in the polls could result in a hung parliament rather than a Tory triumph. This seems probable to me, because I cannot see how they will increase their lead. Tory Remainers may park their votes with Liberal Democrats, especially if they think that Johnson is on track to win anyway. Cummings is trying to rally Leavers to Conservatives, but that well is dry. The Brexit Party vote does not look likely to go lower; it seems now to be composed of those ardent Leavers who also are rabid anti-Tories. They may hope that a late surge in Scotland under the unionist banner may occur. However, it is hard to make that case while drawing a customs border down the Irish Sea and with Johnson’s approval rating being worse than Corbyn’s in Scotland. The prospects for growth seem minimal, so the strategy has to be stemming any losses.
Tides go out.
The best way of doing this is to let the opposition do the work for them. Corbyn has led a dismal campaign. The Labour manifesto has not generated the heat that their manifesto did in 2017. His interview with Neil was brutal and revived the antisemitism issue. Jo Swinson has not done better; unilateral revocation of article 50, the central plank of the LibDem campaign, has proven to be deeply unpopular, as has her ‘presidential-style’ campaign. Only the Scottish National Party has done a decent job, but they are damaging Labour more. Consequently, there is a temptation for the Tories to keep doing what they’ve been doing.
This, however, depends upon the continued incompetence or bad luck of other actors. If Labour’s anti-austerity message is refined so that it can draw back Leavers in vulnerable constituencies, the Tories will be in serious trouble. Johnson’s success so far has been in no small part due to his ability to disassociate himself from a decade of Conservative government. Cut through on this could be fatal. If the LibDems messaging on fiscal prudence draws in centre-right voters, there could be trouble in the South. Continued SNP success could threaten the dozen Conservative seats in Scotland. Trusting to luck may allow victory to slip away, but I’m hard pressed to see what moves are available that have not already been taken.